Trading Room Briefing: EUR/USD Report compiled: 2007-09-07 11:30:00 GMT Live Quotes on EUR/USD | Login Trading Room Briefing | Last Close/High/Low | Need a Practice Account? | Need a Live Account?
Summary Fundamental Analysis Today we have reviewed 6 leading Forex web sites for fundamental analysis and the market trend is presented below. The fundamental analysis indicates a neutral trend for the day. Daily Direction Bulls 1 Neutral 5 Bears 0 Summary Technical Analysis Today we have reviewed 3 leading Forex web sites for Technical analysis and carried out 5 technical studies and a summary of the trend is presented below. Overall, the analysis suggests a neutral market. The technical analysis for the daily market indicates a neutral trend. The weekly analysis is bearish and bullish for the 8 Hour outlook. Technical Analysis Totals 8 Hour Daily Weekly Direction Bulls 3 1 2 Neutral 2 3 0 Bears 0 3 3 Composite Trends Market Direction Long-Term Medium-Term Short-Term Today's Trading Idea Enter: 0.0000    Stop loss : 0.0000 Target: 0.0000    Profit : 0 pips Mini Trading Strategy Collect fundamental and technical indicators from the web and work out the trend and trading idea based on support and resistance values. Risk Ratio: 3% of $1,000.00 = $30.00 per trade = 10 pips Leverage: Pip Price 3 (3 lots) Balance : 1080 Yesterday P/L : 0 pips
News Trading / Economic Calendar Events Date Time Currency   Impact 2007-09-07 13:30 USD Nonfarm Employment Change high 2007-09-07 11:00 EUR German Industrial Production m/m low 2007-09-07 13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m medium 2007-09-07 13:30 USD Unemployment Rate high 2007-09-07 11:00 EUR Composite Leading Indicators m/m low 2007-09-07 07:45 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks medium 2007-09-07 15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories m/m low
News Trade Idea Indicator: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD) Consensus: 110K Previous: 92K Trading Plan If deviates significantly above consensus possible SELL*. If deviates significantly below consensus possible BUY*. Time to trade News: 2007-09-07 13:30 GMT / 09:30:00 NY Time Indicator: Unemployment Rate (USD) Consensus: 4.6% Previous: 4.6% Trading Plan If deviates significantly above consensus possible BUY*. If deviates significantly below consensus possible SELL*. Time to trade News: 2007-09-07 13:30 GMT / 09:30:00 NY Time *watch for peaks and retracements.
Fundamental Analysis
Expert View Fundamentals
Expert	Aspen Trading Group
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-07 12:00 GMT	EUR/USD Alerts & Research	Current Bias: Sideways to up. Key Technical Levels: 1.3721, 1.3685, 1.3635/45, 1.3582/92, 1.3540. Targets at 1.3700.
Expert	Commerzbank
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-07 09:18 GMT	Foreign-Currency Strategy: Daily Commentary	NFP in the limelight Fed’s Poole: - probability of recession higher than it used to be - ECB’s Bini Smaghi: rate changes depend on impact of recent market turmoil on real economy The EUR view The ECB kept rates on hold and one the one hand left the impression it remained inclined to hike rates later this year as market turbulences clear given still accommodative monetary policy and upside risks to inflation. On the other, Trichet avoided the vigilance phrase and underlined that the ECB is monitoring market developments carefully. Events and particularly those in the US may not provide the ECB with the opportunity for another hike. Still, markets chose a positive stance and pushed EUR/USD higher. This was partly ahead of rising expectations of a softer US NFP today as ADP and ISM employment measures eased. A simple regression analysis of the ISM and NFP data, however, points to 92k, just below the 100k consensus. Comments from Fed hawk Poole also sounded more moderate. For the moment, momentum appears to be against the USD. We have argued for 1.3720-30 area to hold and are reluctant to chase USD weakness just now for fear a mix of more risk aversion and better US data (outside of housing) will send the USD marginally higher again. We remain negative on the USD later this year, however and a rise in EUR/USD towards 1.40.
Expert	BetOnMarkets.com
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-07 09:10 GMT	Aggregate Client Positions. (2/3-day market view)	Market direction (delta): Clients are slightly bearish. Volatility (vega): Clients expect a small drop in volatility. Breakout (theta): Clients expect a range-bound market.
Expert	FXStreet.com
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-07 08:57 GMT	Sunrise Market Commentary: Currencies by KBC Market Research Desk	No clear break higher yet in EUR/USD. By KBC Market Research Desk. Today, a new highlight figures on the economic calendar with the US payrolls scheduled for release. The consensus expects a figure around 100 000 growth in non-farm payrolls. After a poor ADP report, the risk might be to the downside. Even if the dollar recently most often withstood negative news and the turmoil in the markets quite well, a negative payrolls report probably won’t pass unnoticed. So, the 1.3720 reaction high could come again under test. However, from there, we think that the upside in the pair still could become more difficult. The market already prices in quite some Fed easing at this stage. So, from the point of view of (decreasing) interest rate support, a lot of USD negative news mightalready be priced in. Therefore we hold on to our view that EUR/USD breaking to new all-time highs is unlikely short-term.
Expert	ForexTrading.com
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-07 09:20 GMT	Daily Forecast & Analysis	No new report yet.
Technical Analysis
Expert View Technicals
Expert	Barchart.com
		Date / Time	Title	Result	Direction
		2007-09-06 23:00 GMT	Euro Future Cash - Short Term Indicators	7 Day Directional Indicator: Buy. 10 - 8 Moving Average Hilo Channel: Buy. Price vs. 20 Day Moving Average: Buy. 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator: Sell. 20 Day Bollinger Bands: Hold. Short Term Indicators Average: 40% - Buy. 20-Day Average Volume - 194
Source	Mataf Chart Conclusion: Short term (Intraday)
			Value	Result	Direction
		Supports	1.3665 - 1.3640	Short term (Intraday). EURUSD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. EURUSD is in a range between 1.3565 and 1.3700. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1.3630 / 1.3700 range. We won't take a position. Spot Value: 1.3669
		Resistances	1.3680 - 1.3700
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 05:45 GMT
Source	FXStreet.com - Currencies at a Glance EURUSD
	Analysts Sentiment			Result	Direction
	Bullish  17% Neutral  50% Bearish  33%			Moves down below pivot level 1.3677 Moves down below pivot level 1.3677 . Immediate resistance seen at 1.3751 while support seen at 1.3647. Spot Value:
Comment	Analysts Sentiment Updated: Thu, Sep 6 2007, 09:26 GMT Updated: 2007-09-07 07:18 GMT
Technical Indicators
Data, studies and figures for Technical Analysis are taken from DailyFx.com Chart Station.
Study	Momentum
		Chart	Value (Upper B. / Lower B.)	Result	Direction
		8 Hour	0.0078 (0.0081 / 0.0065)	WK: Momentum runs sideways with slight downwards bias. DA: Momentum moves downwards after yesterdays bullish movement. 8H: Momentum in tight range moving upwards. Spot Value: 1.3680 Period: 10
		Daily	0.0014 (0.0126 / -0.0086)
		Weekly	0.0147 (0.0340 / 0.0121)
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 09:41 GMT
Study	Relative Strength Index (RSI)
		Chart	Value	Result	Direction
		8 Hour	58.9013	WK: RSI moves upwards. Greater strength than upwards phase of 19 Aug. period. DA: RSI retraces back from 56.1659. 8H: RSI returns to previous upwards motion. Spot Value: 1.3681 Period: 14
		Daily	55.7502
		Weekly	57.3625
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 09:48 GMT
Study	Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
		Chart	MACD/Signal/Histogram	Result	Direction
		8 Hour	0.0019 / 0.0013 / 0.0005	WK: MACD and Signal line remain in bearish configuration. DA: MACD and Signal in bullish configuration. 8H: Bullish configuration remains. Spot Value: 1.3688 Paremeters: 12 / 26 / 9
		Daily	0.0007 / -0.0006 / 0.0014
		Weekly	0.0114 / 0.0131 / -0.0017
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 09:55 GMT
Study	Stochastics Slow
		Chart	PKS 1 / PKS 2	Result	Direction
		8 Hour	76.2104 / 78.3158	WK: PKS1 retracing upwards, gap between PKS1 and PKS2 reduced - signals ever weakening downwards trend. DA: PKS1 in upwards phase having crossed up through PKS2. PKS2 rounding slowly. 8H: PKS1 hit overbought level yesterday evening and has fallen back, PKS1 has crossed PKS2 but is slowing. PKS2 starting to round. Spot Value: 1.3687 Parameters: 5 / 5 / 5
		Daily	59.0941 / 52.4129
		Weekly	50.2652 / 56.9718
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 10:00 GMT
Study	Candlestick Price Patterns
		Chart	Pattern (Trend/Reliability)	Result	Direction
		8 Hour	No pattern identified (Continuation / Low)	WK: Bullish Engulfing pattern but with matching lows. Indicates the downwards trend has lost momentum and bulls are gaining strength. DA: With two bullish days we now see a Bearish Harami Cross, suggests the up trend is losing strength. 8H: Spot Value: 1.3684 Paremeters:
		Daily	Harami Cross (Bearish) (Reversal / Low)
		Weekly	Engulfing (Bullish) (Reversal / Moderate)
Comment	Updated: 2007-09-07 10:16 GMT

Risk Warning
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