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USD/JPY - Future trend for a week

2/1/2007 8:54:31 AM

Bennett

4 posts

USD/JPY - Future trend for a week

There has been a fluctuation in the USD/JPY for a month within the limits of 200 pips of a range of 116.60 - 118.60.
This week the USD/JPY ratio behaviour could be the following:
1. Fluctuations within a range of 116.60 - 118.60 may continue especially in the first half of the week. One of the levels break may lead to two others alternatives development. But range extension above to 119.00 is possible.
This is most likely outcome.

2. The downward trend to range of 114.00 and 115.00. Rebounds from the resistance lines may lead to steep downward trend. The signal is a breakout of level 116.60. In this case the downward trend will simply reach the area of 114.00-115.00. The further decline may lead to deeper slump towards objectives at the annual minimum area of 109.00.
This is less likely outcome than the first one.

3. The upward trend above 119.00.This is the smallest outcome.

Major Resistance Levels:
117.90 long term trend line from 1998
118.60 short resistance line for last three weeks
119.60/90 yearly maximum in October 2006 (very import resistance)
121.40 maximum in December 2005 (level of significant resistance)

Major Support Levels:
117.50 local support from last week
116.60 local minimum from November
116.10 local minimum in the end of September
114.00/115.60 August and September monthly minimums

2/1/2007 11:11:37 AM

conor

6 posts

Re: USD/JPY - Future trend for a week

The USD/JPY couple course fell down in the last week and pushed the support levels of 116 in the area of 115.80. This situation gives a huge technical potential for the further couple course decline to the area 113.00-114.00
1. Medium decline to 115.00
We are expecting couple course decline. It can be medium during the week with the maximum target of 115.00 (the first script) but can be steeper with the main target achievement of the area of 114.00 (the second script). Within the bounds of the first script it is not improbable a short-term upward movement during the week to 116.60 following which a down impuls be next. A breakout of 116.60 will lead to the third script development.
The chances of this script development are 50%

2. A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 range
A course decline may be rapid with a target achievement in the area of 114.00. Since it is reached a rising correction rebound will follow.
The chances of this script development are 40%

3. An upward trend above 117.00
We don’t leave out a couple rises above 117.00. The reason is a course technical need to test a broken neckline below (117.00/40 region). It will be a classic script of a "head-and-shoulders" shape. After such an upward trend further course decline to the calculated drop target area is to be expected.
This is the smallest outcome.

Major resistance and support level for USD/JPY

Resistance
116.00 – 116.60 nearest resistance level – broken support
117.40 level of “head and shoulders” figure
117.80 long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
115.60 local supports from last week – recent minimum of November, also September minimum
115.00 expected intermediate support
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimumSource: GF Signals team.

2/1/2007 11:34:45 AM

jamal

5 posts

Re: USD/JPY - Future trend for a week

USD/JPY couple course decline continued last week. Yen to dollar rising is not as fast as euro currencies, but medium dollar decline is going on anyway. Last week the 115.00 level was tested and price drop below (one of the last review’s scripts). It can be training for the next course decline within the next few days and fixing below. A technical picture says about high probability of the further couple course decline to the 113.00-114.00 region.

This week the following USD/JPY couple range variations are possible:

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00 - 116.60 area. After inert week for yen side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00-116.60 region are expected. Especially liable will be couple rising to 116.60 in the case of euro currencies correction beginning. The breakdown of these levels will lead to the next two scripts development.

Script 2 (40%): The downward trend to the 113.40-114.00 region. The course decline can continue in case of fixing below 115.00. In that case the nearest target of the 113.40-114.00 region will easily be reached during the week. After that the correcting rebound can occur.

Script 3 (20%): The upward trend above 116.60. It is not improbable that the couple will rise above the 116.60 level to the 117.40 area. The reason is a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region).

Resistance
116.00 - 116.60 the nearest resistance region – broken support
117.40 the neck line region of “head and shoulders” figure
117.80 the long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
115.00 the last week reached supports
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum
109.00 May yearly minimum as a long-range target of the current decline

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