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 Euro-Dollar currency exchange - Part I
 
 3/30/2007 8:33:38 AM
User is offlinefrancesco
66 posts
www.tescari.com




Euro-Dollar currency exchange - Part I

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rat is the price at which the world demand for US Dollars equals the world supply of Euros. Regardless of gegraphical origin, a rise in the world demand for Euros leads to an appreciation of the Euro.

Factors affecting the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate

Four factors are identified as fundamental determinants of the real Euro to US Dollar exchange rate:

1. The international real interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank

2. Relative prices in the traded and non-traded goods sectors

3. The real oil price

4. The relative fiscal position of the US and Euro zone

The nominal bilateral US Dollar to Euro exchange is the exchange rate that attracts the most attention. Notwithstanding the comparative importance of bilateral trade links with the US, trade with the UK is, to some extent, more important for the Euro.

 

 3/30/2007 10:05:46 AM
User is offlineBrianTran
155 posts
5th




Re: Euro-Dollar currency exchange - Part I
 Modified By BrianTran  on 3/30/2007 10:13:21 AM)
These factor play a role in the exchange rates but if you look watch the announcements of the Non-Farm Payrolls, Export-Import Trades Balance, Gross Domestic Product report, Consumer Price Index and of course the Interest Rate (FOMC meeting). By looking at price spikes in the EURUSD you can see how big these report play on institutions to reposition their holdings.

I think the interest rate differentials is the primary driver. Then the health of the each respective economy plays the big roll (NFP, GDP, CPI and similar reports), then the trade balances (import-export). Shifting money into another currency where a higher yield exists attracts investor (investment in Treasury Bills). Knowing where the economy is heading determines how inflation will move, thus increasing/decreasing the yield factor from investment in the currency. Lastly, trade balances can monitor the shifting of money supply going in or going, affecting the general supply of money.

The sum is greater than its parts.
 4/2/2007 8:25:20 AM
User is offlinefrancesco
66 posts
www.tescari.com




Re: Euro-Dollar currency exchange - Part I
No comment ...   Very true.
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