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 A Smiling Currency Pair
 
 2/2/2007 10:20:46 AM
User is offlineelliot
4 posts


A Smiling Currency Pair

Please tell me which currency pairs have the greatest FX smile? Do the major currency pairs have a less or more pronounced FX smile than the emerging currency pairs in general?

Will the correlation for FX options rounds to zero for shorter dated options?

Thanks in advance

 2/2/2007 11:07:51 AM
User is offlinejamal
5 posts


Re: A Smiling Currency Pair

I imagine that a smile is in part a function of the kurtosis (derived from actual OTM 25d/10d butterfly spreads over ATM). So I guess a pronounced smile is a result of wider fly spreads above (or sometimes below) ATM levels. In some thinly traded currency pairs, there may not even be an active OTM market, so much so that the only vols being published on Reuters or Bloomberg are the ATMs, resulting in a flat surface across all expiries i.e. no smile at all.
I think a wider butterfly spread-over-ATM (i.e. a pronounced smile?) either implies that the market in general is very volatile and could go either way, or that the currency pair itself is so illiquid that there are not enough market makers.

 2/2/2007 11:39:59 AM
User is offlinejarrett
7 posts


Re: A Smiling Currency Pair
The smile offers a view of the behaviour of the underlying volatility - and the correlation between the underlying price movements and volatility. ie. equity markets exhibit a negative skew as volatility tends to increase when markets fall (negative correlation between price and vol.)
Similarly, when FX markets drift away from their long term average the volatility increases - and hence the smile is observed.
FX skews are generally observed when one currency is "stronger" than the other. ie. USD/THB
I would disagree with imranyusof's last comment. Thinly traded options should exhibit a greater skew - as traders will have more difficulty replicating deep OTM or ITM positions. Therefore, the traders will require compensation for risking their capital and push up the implied vols for these options.

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