The following data will clarify the things:

- the bearish engulfing on june 22 (using the daily candlestick chart)
- using the *exponential* MACD, we see that there is a large distance between the signal and  MACD       lines, suggestion an impending reversion.
- also, if you create a price channel from October '04 through june 20 of this year, you see that the point where the pair breaks below the resistance line for the first time is june 22. It indicates a sell signal (or obviously a buy signal if you wish to short the pair).